Oceans are heating,
not the atmosphere       
Global Warming  
not caused by carbon dioxide   
 
    
Gary Novak
Independent Scientist

Science Home

Global Warming:
Global Warming Main Page 
Crunching the Numbers
Absorption Spectra
Details Explained
Oceans not Rising
Future Ice Age
Acid in the Oceans
Context


IPCC Propaganda

Fake Mechanism

30% Fraud

41% Fraud

Water Vapor Fraud

"Delicate Balance" Fraud 

The Concept of Distance

How can all those
scientists be wrong

Peer review is a sham

A Look at Modeling 

Logic Error

Propaganda

The Misconception

Global Dynamic

                 

Crunching the Numbers
 

Heat enters the atmosphere through conduction, convection and evaporation with traces of radiation. The energy is re-emitted as radiation within the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide can only absorb 8% of the wavelengths which are emitted because of its narrow bandwidth of absorption wavelengths.

Regardless of how much heat is held in the atmosphere by CO2, increasing the CO2 cannot significantly increase the heat or temperature, because CO2 is doing all it can do before any increase. (See The Dispputed Area.)

The fakes want people to assume (and sometimes directly state) that the atmosphere would not hold any heat without greenhouse gasses. And a corollary is that it doesn't matter how much heat leaves the surface of the earth, because it's the rate of escape into space that matters. Both are a fraud.

Most heat leaves the surface of the earth through conduction, convection and evaporation (about 99%). These sources heat the nitrogen and oxygen. So the atmosphere would contain almost as much heat even if there were no greenhouse gasses. (See correction of Stephan-Bolzmann constant.)

CO2 absorbs all radiation available at its central peak in 10 meters at ground level. Doubling the amount of CO2 shortens the distance to 5 meters. Shortening the distance is not increasing the heat.

At 5 kilometers of height, the atmospheric density is one half as much; so CO2 absorbs all radiation available at its central peak in 20 meters. At 16 kilometers of height (in the stratosphere), the atmospheric pressure is one tenth; so the absorption distance increases to 100 meters.

Shortening these distances by increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere does not translate into increased heat except for two miniscule situations. One: high in the stratosphere or above it, the last cycle of emission and absorption involves distances which are so long that some radiation would escape into space, while an increase in CO2 would absorb it before getting into space. Two: At mid levels of the atmosphere and higher, trace amounts of CO2 are in an unusual energy state where they absorb different wavelengths over long distance. They are on the shoulders of the absorption peaks. The trace amounts and long distances result in miniscule effects, mostly in the stratosphere and higher, where an increase in CO2 reduces the long distances to shorter distances. (See The Disputed Area.)

The numbers below indicate how small the effects are for CO2 and the human influence.

The fakes don't fix these numbers through some evidence. Instead, they go around them with a different type of analysis. These numbers show that their type of analysis is fraud. In fact, they don't do an alternative analysis. They use computers models to muddle the subject and then pull contrived numbers out of thin air.

For more details, see The Concept of Distance and Fake Mechanism.
 

claimed heat due to atmosphere --- 33°C

95-99% due to various things --- 31.4°C

1-5% due to infrared radiation from earth's surface --- 1.65°C

8% of infrared bandwidth available to CO2 --- 0.13°C

3% of CO2 produced by humans --- 0.0039°C

5% of absorption "unsaturated" for global warming --- 0.0002°C

claimed global warming --- 0.6°C

Even though some of these numbers cannot be exact—they are estimates—they show the general nature of the problem.

For more exact numbers see 220 Trillionth Degree Centigrade.

See Fake Mechanism for explanation of the "5% unsaturated."

 

Their Numbers Lie.

from NASA chart below

claimed heat due to atmosphere --- 33°C

27% (19/70) due to sunlight absobed in atmosphere --- 8.9°C

21% (15/70) due to radiation from the earth's surface --- 7.1°C

8% of radiation available to CO2 --- 0.79°C
(8% x 21 ÷ 70 x 33 = 0.79)

Some vague fraction of CO2 increases temperature
maybe 5% x 0.79°C = 0.040°C
See Fake Mechanism

These are upper limits. They don't add up to the several degrees of global warming being claimed. And this assumes humans are the source of all of the CO2 instead of some fraction.

 

Here's another way of looking at their numbers based on the NASA chart below.

33°C = claimed heat caused by atmosphere.

7.5°C = atmospheric heat from sunshine (16 ÷ 70 x 33 = 7.5°C)

1.4°C = clouds heated from sunshine (3 ÷ 70 x 33 = 1.4°C)

3.3°C = conduction from ground to atmosphere (7 ÷ 70 x 33 = 3.3°C)

10.8°C = evaporation from surface into atmosphere (23 ÷ 70 x 33 = 10.8°C)

23°C = nonradiative heat in atmosphere (7.5 + 1.4 + 3.3 + 10.8 = 23°C)

10°C = remainder of heat in atmosphere due to radiation (33°C - 23°C = 10°C)

8% = fraction of blackbody radiation available to CO2 (always assumed)

0.8°C = atmospheric heat attributable to CO2 (8% x 10°C = 0.8°C)

0.04°C = contradictory increase when doubling CO2 (5% x 0.8°C = 0.04°C)

The claim is that at most 5% of the CO2 molecules added to the atmosphere are said to increase the heat, because they are on the shoulders of the absorption peaks, where complete absorption has not already occurred. In reality, the 5% would be 0.1% or less, as explained on the page titled Fake Mechanism.

Notice that by official numbers without interpretation, there is only 0.8°C atmospheric heat attributable to CO2 at this time.


 
Atmospheric Heat

Scientists have been saying, with no disagreement, that the atmosphere is responsible for heating the globe by 33°C. Propagandists (promoters of supposed consensus view that humans are the cause of global warming) try to create the impression for the public that all 33 degrees is caused by "greenhouse gasses". It's not true.

Infrared radiation is 1-5% of heat leaving the earth's surface

The atmosphere acquires heat in a variety of ways, and very little through radiation. Here's how it works:

The atmosphere is transparent to most of the sun's radiation. This means that much of the radiant energy from the sun goes through the atmosphere without heating it, and then it is absorbed by the earth's surface, where it is converted into heat. There are various exceptions which are not relevant to global warming from carbon dioxide. For example, water in the air absorbs some of the solar energy, and ozone absorbs a little.

The important point is that radiation from the sun is too high of a frequency to be absorbed by carbon dioxide, which only absorbs infrared radiation. Something as hot as the sun cannot emit low frequency radiation.

Conduction and Convection

Most of the heat leaves the earth's surface through conduction, convection and evaporation (about 95-99%), while very little leaves as infrared radiation (about 1-5%). (You might notice that promoters of the propaganda sometimes imply that heat leaves the earth's surface through radiation only and that CO2 is the only thing holding heat in the atmosphere.)

Nowdays there is a good indication that very little radiation is given of by the earth's surface or the atmosphere, and it is night vision equipment (as sometimes seen on TV). At 80°F, or 27°C, (typical temperatures) there is very little radiation picked up by night vision equipment.

I do a lot of electronic work with heat measuring and controlling devices for mushroom research, where experience shows that very little heat leaves surfaces as radiation, even at moderately hot temperatures.

I therefore estimate that 95-99% of the heat on the earth's surface enters the atmosphere through conduction, convection or evaporation, while about 1-5% gets there by radiation emitted from the earth's surface.

This means, of the 33°C which the atmosphere is said to add to the globe's temperature, about 1.65°C is due to radiation which can be absorbed by the "greenhouse gasses".

Promoters of global warming hype try to balloon infrared radiation out of proportions, sometimes claiming that it may be as much or more than the sun's energy. That claim is incredibly absurd. Night vision equipment shows that matter at normal temperatures gives off very little infrared radiation.

The NASA web site says 41% of the energy which leaves the earth's surface is in the form of radiation, which is absurd. (See The 41% Fraud.) The IPCC probably uses the same number. The rationalizers pick numbers with no relationship to reality. If that number is used, the breakdown is this:

claimed heat due to atmosphere --- 33°C
59% due to various things --- 19.5°C
41% due to infrared radiation from earth's surface --- 13.5°C
8% of infrared bandwidth available to CO2 --- 1.1°C

This is the maximum heat carbon dioxide can add to the atmosphere— 1.1°C. It means that increasing the CO2 could never produce a larger total. Even if humans are responsible for 30% of it, which is absurd, the "anthropogenic global warming" would be 0.33°C.

Also, they claim 49% of the heat gets into the atmosphere directly from the sun's energy being absorbed by such things as water vapor and ozone, which is absurd; but if true, the total would need to be reduced by another 51%. in other words, they can't get numbers which add up even after ballooning them out of proportions. Computer models take care of the discrepancies.

Carbon Dioxide Absorbs only 8% of Radiation

When radiation is emitted from the earth's surface, it is picked up by gasses in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide has three narrow bands of absorption, and water vapor has several bands.

Measurements show that 8% of the radiation will strike carbon dioxide due to its narrow absorption bands. The other 92% of the radiation goes around the CO2 bands and strikes the water vapor, methane or other substances in the air.

This means, of the 1.65°C that radiation heats the atmosphere, at most 0.13°C could be attributed to CO2.

Humans put 3% of the CO2 in the Air
External Reference

Humans are said to put 3% of the CO2 in the air, while the rest of the CO2 is due mostly to biological decay and respiration. The hypothetical problem is that humans might double their production of CO2. Doubling would mean adding 3% to whatever CO2 does. A 3% increase in what CO2 does would mean increasing the 0.13°C by another 0.0039°C. This is the maximum amount of heating of the atmosphere humans would do by doubling their production of CO2—0.0039°C—until taking into account the next factor.

(The claim that humans caused a 30% increase in CO2 over the past 150 years is phonier than a three dollar bill. The actual increase was due to warmer oceans releasing more; but it was less increase than claimed, because numbers for earlier times are based on ice core measurements, which are dubious and not comparable to present measurements in the air. Oceans regulate the amount of CO2 in the air. If not, nothing would control the amount of CO2 in the air, and there would be so much, life would be impossible. claiming that the 3% which humans add multiplies to 30%, while the 97% which nature adds does not multiply is unscientific. See 30% Fraud)

Saturation Pertains to about 5% of the Absorption Peaks

Supposedly, the all-important effect occurs high in the atmosphere where the absorption peaks are not saturated. In the thinner atmosphere, the shoulders on the peaks shrink and do not overlap with the peaks for water vapor. The shoulders on the absorption peaks are very small—at most 5% of the absorption. This means the quantities above need to be multiplied by 5%. Then the effects of saturation result in, at most, 5% times 0.0039°C, which is 0.0002°C.

Apparently, not all climatologists are aware of this effect, where shoulder absorption is used to salvage the hype. If not, they are ignoring the fact that more CO2 only shortens the distance without adding more heat.

There is no Mechanism

These are hard numbers which can be estimated without much error. So propagandists need some way to explain how the heat is being produced. They claim the earth has already been heated 0.6°C by carbon dioxide, and 1-6°C more heating is expected in the future.

To salvage the global warming hype, "consensus" scientists pretend that there is an esoteric mechanism farther up in the atmosphere doing some vague thing to produce the heat. But they can't explain a mechanism. There's no such mechanism.

After the heat enters the atmosphere, the same dynamics of distribution exist: Convectional currents stir the air for about a month, while small amounts of radiation compete with convection for moving heat around. And then near the outer edges of the atmosphere, the energy escapes into space through radiation. Before it escapes, it doesn't matter whether the energy is in contact with CO2, water vapor or nitrogen.

These miniscule numbers show that there is no real mechanism for carbon dioxide creating global warming. There isn't something else that happens somewhere creating some other mechanism for CO2 causing global warming.
 


     

The NASA Energy Budget

NASA Web Site