Oceans are heating,
not the atmosphere
       
(atm stable since 1998)       
Global Warming  
 
not caused by carbon dioxide   
 
    

Gary Novak
Independent Scientist
Science Home
About the Author

Global Warming:
Crunching the Numbers
Absorption Spectra
Details Explained
Oceans not Rising
Future Ice Age
Acid in the Oceans
Context


IPCC Propaganda

The Water Vapor Fraud

"Delicate Balance" Fraud

Global Dynamic

The 41% Fraud

How can all those
scientists be wrong

Peer review is a sham

Fraudulent Consensus

A Look at Modeling 

Logic Error

Propaganda

A Fake Mechanism

The Misconception

Ice Core Measurements

Global Cooling by CO2

Stephan-Boltzmann

Latest Updates

Cold Weather


 
Review:
Al Gore's
An Inconvenient Truth


Outside Links:
"Authorities" Contrive

News Collection
August 14, 2007


Video:
The Great Global Warming Swindle
Order DVD:
Here


Another DVD—
Global Warming or
Global Governance


Senate Floor Speech
October 26, 2007

Excerpts of Speech
                 
 

The Science of Global Warming
in Perspective

 

Most climatologists don't know what factors influence this subject. I bothered to find out; they didn't.

There is no scientifically valid mechanism for carbon dioxide creating global warming.

There is a shortage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, because alkaline oceans absorb it and only release a small amount, while coral reefs tie it up as calcium carbonate. Only 0.04% of the atmosphere is CO2.

When an ice age begins, global Warming occurs exactly as it is doing now. Heated oceans cause increased evaporation followed by precipitation. Eventually, increased snowfall will reflect away solar energy and trigger a cool-down.

Ocean Temperatures over 800,000 Years
 
temp graph
 
Each cycle is an ice age.

Now is above the dotted line on the right side. The oceans have been heating continuously since the last ice age. (see below) My impression is that the smaller blips are caused by solar energy, and the larger cycles are caused by heat from within the earth, perhaps related to electromagnetic energy. (See Electric Universe by Talbott and Thornhill)

graph source one
graph source two

Study shows oceans are the cause of temperature increase.

 
There is no mechanism for carbon dioxide creating global warming

"Greenhouse gases" absorb all radiation available to them in a few meters (Heinz Hug). The limiting factor is in the radiation, not the greenhouse gases. More of the gas cannot absorb more radiation. A thick sheet of plastic does nothing more than a thin sheet. Doubling the CO2 would only shorten the distance for absorption of radiation from 10 meters to 5 meters, which is not an increase in temperature.

Here's a quantitative reason why carbon dioxide does not create global warming:

The sun's energy goes through the atmosphere and strikes the earth's surface.

claimed heat due to atmosphere --- 33°C

95-99% due to various things --- 31.4°C

1-5% due to infrared radiation from earth's surface --- 1.65°C

8% of infrared bandwidth available to CO2 --- 0.13°C

3% of CO2 produced by humans --- 0.0039°C

5% of absorption "unsaturated" for global warming --- 0.0002°C

claimed global warming --- 0.6°C

Explanations — Crunching the Numbers

This means carbon dioxide cannot trap radiant energy near the surface of the earth. To get around this, an obfuscated mechanism is contrived for heat leaving the atmosphere. But it is a miniscule effect in the stratosphere, with little influence over the lower atmosphere.

The 41% Fraud
The 30% Fraud

 
  • A one percent change in water vapor does the same thing as doubling the carbon dioxide in the air. Water vapor changes one percent every five minutes—small scale, large scale. It's like blaming ants on the road for gas mileage. In other words, even if everything global warming propagandists said were true, it would be of irrelevant proportions compared to nature. Water Vapor Fraud

  • CO2 absorbs all radiation available to it in 10 meters. More CO2 only shortens the distance.

  • Oceans regulate the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere totally and rapidly through equilibrium exchanging 19 times as much C02 as humans produce.

  • Almost no energy leaves the earth’s surface as radiation to be absorbed by CO2. Almost all exits through conduction, convection and evaporation.

How could all of those scientists be wrong? They get paid to be wrong through billions of dollars from government; and they are not a consensus.
How the Firing Works
Fake Consensus Based on Fraudulent Survey

Nature Study — 20 Year Cool-Down

The dramatic cool-down, first around the Antarctic, and then around the Arctic, over the past year is more evidence that ocean currents are controlling the result. Warm water flowing over the Bering Strait appears to have changed the direction of ocean currents, first diverting warm water away from the Southern Hemisphere, and then melting Arctic ice like a giant ice cube. After the Artic ice is gone (maybe five years), oceans should resume an increase in temperature.

Melting Arctic ice over the past year apparently caused a lot of precipitation to form, which would release heat into the atmosphere to be emitted into space. This means a large amount of global heat loss may have occurred.

There are indications of reduced solar energy, but that effect should be too slow and gradual to explain the dramatic chill over the past year.
Cold Weather
some new measurements — at NPR
Antarctic Ocean Cooling — at Nature

The real cause of global warming could be an increase in solar energy, as critics generally claim; but there is evidence that it is due to variations in heat from the earth's core. Ice ages are caused by oceans heating, which appears to result from increased heat from inside the earth. The primary evidence is the exact cycling of ice ages. Environmental factors would not be so precise. Also, the oceans heating more than the atmosphere points to the heat coming from inside the earth.

The earth's core is fluid, in constant motion and heterogeneous, which adds up to variations in heat escaping to the surface.

Volcanoes Show how Sunshine Heats Oceans — external link

Ice over oceans is melting much faster than expected. The reason is because the oceans are heating, not the atmosphere. Heated oceans can melt ice rapidly, while heated air cannot. Ninety percent of ice is below the surface—exposed to water, not air—and water has the heat capacity needed for melting.

The recent cool-down is consistent with oceans heating, because ocean currents are highly erratic and unexplainable, as an El Nino demonstrates, and they create odd microclimates in the atmosphere.

New Concept

The melting of Arctic ice, which is now occurring, will cause increased evaporation from Arctic ocean water and precipitation as snowfall in northern areas. This process could be the trigger mechanism for an ice age. Increased snowfall will reflect away more sunlight resulting in a global cool-down.

 
List of Critical Facts

1. There's no mechanism for CO2 creating global warming. Greenhouse gases absorb all radiation available to them in short distances (Heinz Hug), which means more greenhouse gas only shortens the distance of absorption, which is not an increase in heat. The first 20% of the CO2 in the atmosphere does most of what CO2 does.


2. There's no "delicate balance of heat trapping gasses" for humans to upset. Water vapor is one hundred times as much of a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide, and it varies massively due to evaporation and precipitation. A one percent variation in water vapor effect would be equivalent to doubling the CO2 effect.
The "Delicate Balance" Fraud
Water Vapor Fraud


3. Oceans regulate CO2 in the atmosphere to the minutest detail due to equilibrium. Equilibirum means strictly defined concentrations in the liquid and air above it. Segalstad
This is shown by an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which causes CO2 measurements in the air to increase, and then they renormalize when the El Nino disappears. External Link on El Nino
If regulation were not occurring, oceans would absorb all or none. There is nothing in between without regulation. There are huge quantities of CO2 in the oceans due to equilibrium chemistry. Global Dynamic Page


4. Measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere show small seasonal blips which are the same every year. It means CO2 does not accumulate for centuries in the atmosphere as propagandists claim. CO2 has to come out in days or weeks to show uniform seasonal blips. Data Source

CO2 graph


5. Nature puts 33 times as much CO2 into the air through decay as humans produce, and the oceans exchange CO2 with the atmosphere 19 times as fast as humans produce it. So humans produce a miniscule effect on CO2 which has a miniscule effect on climate. It's statistically, scientifically, logically a non-effect.


6. Computer models (the only source of information for propagandists including the IPCC) consider none of these basic points of science. Computer models are nothing but a fraudulent method of erasing the science of the subject.


7. The reason why CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been increasing is because warmer oceans release more CO2. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a measure of global, average ocean temperatures plus minor seasonal variations.


8. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. It is necessary for biology, and there is a shortage of it, contrary to the Supreme Court. Global Dynamic


9. Carbon dioxide absorbs radiation in narrow bands, which means most radiation goes around it.


10. Very little radiation is emitted from the surface of the earth. It's about 1-5% of the energy, not the 41-115% which is variously claimed. The 41% Fraud


11. Supposedly, shoulders on the CO2 absorption peaks create global warming high in the atmosphere, because they separate from water vapor peaks; but the shoulders become miniscule, which is why they separate, and the height is in the upper atmosphere, while global warming is supposed to be about near-surface temperatures. Fake Mechanism


12. Only the last cycle of emission high in the atmosphere is relevant, because only then do more molecules capture radiation which would not otherwise be captured. But the last cycles are usually too high in the atmosphere to have much effect upon the lower atmosphere.


13. Climate scientists know that heating caused by CO2 is indeed small, but supposedly it's effect is amplified by a factor of 3 or more by creating more water vapor. If multiplying the heat were possible, it would create thermal runaway, as the heat from the water vapor would also be multiplied. The Water Vapor Fraud


14. Humans add 3% of the CO2 to the atmosphere, while nature adds 97%. To claim the human addition accumulates to 30%, while the nature addition does not is absurd. The 30% Fraud


15. The claimed 0.6°C atmospheric temperature increase is a contrivance. Satellites show less, and thermometers are worthless for the purpose.
Satellite Measurements—Spencer
Thermomenter Errors—Keenan


16. Oceans are only rising 1.8mm per year (7 inches per century), and sea level will be decreasing, because increased precipitation is causing ice to accumulate over Antarctica. See Oceans Page


17. The latest claim is that humans are putting 8.3 giga tons of carbon into the air per year, which is 1% of the 750 giga tons in the air. If one percent per year were relevant, natural variations would have been catastrophic long ago. External Link Showing Past Variations


18. Ice is melting faster than expected over oceans, particularly the Arctic. This is because oceans are heating, not the atmosphere. Increased precipitation also shows oceans are heating (increasing evaporation). A hot spot in the earth's core is the most likely cause. See Below


19. Over nineteen thousand scientists signed a petition saying human production of carbon dioxide is not the cause of global warming. External Link


20. Change, as in climate change: Water vapor (which is 100 times as much of a greenhouse gas as CO2) can change by a factor of 2 from day to day. CO2 changes by 2 ppm (parts per million) per year. That's 36,500,000,000 times as much change by water vapor as by CO2. A 1°C temperature change due to CO2 in 20 years (0.000137°C per day) would require a 5,000,000°C change due to water vapor from day to day and place to place, if propagandists were producing a consistent logic. Of course, radiation would deplete first, but still, water vapor would swamp anything CO2 does based on the logic of propagandists, and it means there is no "delicate balance" being upset by humans. Delicate Balance Fraud


21. A turning point for some scientists occurred (decades ago) when some jackass said the oceans are in layers, and the surface layer is too thin to absorb much carbon dioxide. The surface oceans are alkaline with no detectable increase in acidity, which means they are going to absorb carbon dioxide regardless of how thick they are said to be. Global Dynamic


22. Climatologists look to the distribution of energy (through computer models). Physics says the radiation is not there for carbon dioxide to absorb. Chemistry says humans cannot put carbon dioxide into the air, because oceans remove it. If it is not in the physics and chemistry, it is not going to be in the distribution of energy. Hurricanes Recanted (external link)


23. Species dying and disease? The temperature gets 0.6°C colder about every 50 miles further north. If it wasn't a catastrophe 50 miles south, then it is not a catastrophe now. Society is being overrun by antibiotic resistant diseases due to incompetence and fraud. To not fix that problem first is to have ulterior motives.


24. Mindless persons (including the Supreme Court) assume carbon dioxide must be the equivalent of auto exhaust pollution. CO2 is no more of a pollutant than water is (and less of a greenhouse gas). It has been an essential part of biology for as long as biology has existed.


25. Some jerks are putting iron in the oceans trying to cool the planet. Their first experiment seemed to work, so now they are putting more in. They aren't asking anyone, and there is no getting it back out when the oceans turn to slime.


The public has a responsibility in determining whether social realities are based on rationality or fraud. There are highly visible differences. Rationality doesn't look anything like fraud. Rationality includes explanations and evidence. Fraud is forced down peoples' throats without explanations or evidence based on a fake consensus, which is nothing but mob rule.

 

 
Oceans are Warming

There are two points of evidence indicating that oceans are warming: One is that precipitation is increasing, which means increased evaporation from warmer oceans; and the other is that ice is melting over oceans more than over land.

The oceans have a heat capacity 1,000 times that of the atmosphere. This means the air cannot easily heat the oceans, but oceans can easily heat the air. The atmosphere would have to heat a lot, before it could heat the oceans a little; yet the opposite is occurring. The atmosphere is only said to have warmed 0.6°C in recent times.

The ice which is suspended over the oceans is 90% submerged. To melt it, the water has to provide the heat, not the air. Not only is the water surrounding 90% of the ice, but water has the heat capacity needed to transfer a large amount of heat, while air has little heat capacity.

Ice is obviously melting rapidly at both north and south poles, but primarily over oceans. In localized areas, there is warming over land which is melting showpiece glaciers and northern tundra. But where it really matters, over the Antarctica land mass, ice is thickening. Over Greenland, both thickening and thinning of ice is occurring, but Greenland is small, and it's climate is influenced by an ocean current called the Gulf Stream.

(Over the past couple of years, the whole southern hemisphere has been cooling due to ocean currents shifting. Antarctic ice is re-accumulating, even over oceans around Antarctica, while the Arctic is melting rapidly.)

The ultimate test of whether the oceans or atmosphere is heating more is precipitation, and it is increasing. If the atmosphere were heating more than the oceans, there would be less precipitation, because warmer air holds more moisture. If the oceans are heating more than the air, more precipitation occurs, because evaporation increases, while there is less change in the amount of moisture the air will hold.

If the atmosphere heats more than the oceans, precipitation decreases.
If oceans heat more than the atmosphere, precipitation increases.

Because of the increase in precipitation, ice is thickening over land at Antarctica and Greenland, as shown by satellites which use radar to measure thickness of ice. (Details and references are on Oceans Page).

Recently, Arctic ice has been rapidly melting, but this is submerged ice melting due to warm ocean water flowing over the Bering Strait.

Here's a related oddity. Scientists cannot figure out why the Great Lakes are losing so much water. An indication is the large amount of snowfall around them during the winters. The Lakes are apparently heating up just as the oceans are, and they are evaporating away.

Ocean levels are increasing due to expansion from warming, but the increase over the past four years is twice as much as scientists can account for. This is another indication of the heat coming from the earth's core, which would cause more heat to accumulate in the deep oceans than scientists are aware of.

Deep Ocean Heat Measured - (external)

Ice Ages

The present global warming is part of a natural ice age cycle. It's what always happens at the beginning of an ice age.

Ice ages cycle at precise 100 thousand year intervals. The next one is scheduled to begin now. The temperature reversal will begin between 100 and 200 years from now. The time can be determined from the amount of precipitation. Cold temperatures alone cannot create an ice age. There has to be more snow than can melt during the summer to create an accumulation of ice. There is not enough moisture in the air at this time to do that. But it's increasing. There should be enough precipitation in a century or two to produce more snow than can melt during the summers in low enough latitudes to reflect away enough solar energy to trigger an irreversible cool-down.

The amount of moisture in the air is increasing because oceans are warming. The warming of oceans is observable in the amount of ice melting at the poles. Measurement of long term trends show ocean temperatures to be peaking at a level where ice age reversals begin.

Such precise cycling of temperatures cannot be caused by environmental factors such as greenhouse gases, because there would be too many variations. The variations would be like trying to use the clouds for a calendar. The cause of ice ages must be some force which overrides environmental influences. Two possible sources are cyclic variation in solar energy and motion of a hot spot in the earth's core. An underlying factor is that ice age cycles correlate with a variable in the earth's orbit.

Orbital influences could explain either variations in solar energy or motion of a hot spot in the earth's core. No one has been able to clearly identify a factor in the orbit of the earth which would increase solar intensity in a way which correlates with ice age cycles, not the least reason being that there is a huge amount of complexity in several variables in the orbit of the earth. There are additional problems in explaining ice age cycles in terms of solar intensity. There are many environmental factors which interact with solar energy creating variations in the result. But it's not impossible that solar variations could override all environmental complexities and create the ice age cycles as shown on the graph.

There is however a clearer impression that the oceans are being heated from within the earth's core. The main factor creating this impression, besides total immunity of the cycles to environmental influences, is that all other changes show clear evidence of following the ocean temperature increases rather than responding to some other influence. The most significant factor is that precipitation is increasing.

Areas where weather patterns indicate warming are all microclimates resulting from nearby oceans being warmer. The most obvious example of this is Greenland and parts of Europe, which are warmed by the Gulf Stream. North America is showing milder winters due to less ice around Alaska, where the winter air often comes from. But satellite measurements show little warming in evaluating total global conditions. Global warming is occurring, but it's not the frying pan situation that it is portrayed as.

Movement of a hot spot in the earth's core could correlate with changes in the earth's orbit. The central core of the earth could be pulled farther south due to gravitational effects, and this would heat the oceans more, since there is less land area in the southern hemisphere. For details on earth's orbit see external link here: Tilt in Earth's Orbit

Heat from Earth's Core

Heat constantly migrates from the core of the earth to the surface. This heat keeps lakes from freezing solid, after ice forms on the surface. It keeps the ground from freezing more than six feet deep in the winter. It causes deep well water to be hot, which can sometimes be used for geothermal heating.

Therefore, the cause of global warming could be oceans increasing in temperature due to increased heat flowing from the earth's core. The increased heat could be due to a hot spot which rotates in the molten fluid within the earth. As it rotates, it could get closer to the surface in an area where the heat can diffuse into the oceans.

Or it could be the central core being pulled closer to the surface due to gravitational forces in the solar system related to changes in the earth's orbit. The central core of the earth is highly dense, consisting largely of iron, which would cause it to respond to gravitational forces. Magnetic north constantly migrates demonstrating that masses move around in the molten fluid within the earth.

There is new evidence for the earth's core heating based on variations in the earth's magnetic field. There is about a six year lag for "global warming" correlating with the amount of time required for the heat to conduct through the mantle. A summary article is here:
http://www.gsaaj.org/articles/TempPaperv1n22007.pdf

A new submarine for measuring the temperature of deep oceans found more heat than expected on its first measurement. Deep ocean heat points to the heat coming from the earth's core. Deep Ocean Heat Measured - (external)

A related point is that expansion of the oceans from heating is twice as much as expected, with no explanation. The best explanation is that the deep oceans are hotter than expected due to heat coming from the earth's core.

Some Data

"Total human CO2 emissions primarily from use of coal, oil, and natural gas and the production of cement are currently about 5.5 GT C per year (giga tons of carbon per year). A recent update says 8.6 GT, which probably includes the usual stretching.

To put these figures in perspective, it is estimated that the atmosphere contains 750 GT C; the surface ocean contains 1,000 GT C; vegetation, soils, and detritus contain 2,200 GT C; and the intermediate and deep oceans contain 38,000 GT C. Each year, the surface ocean and atmosphere exchange an estimated 90 GT C; vegetation and the atmosphere, 60 GT C; marine biota and the surface ocean, 50 GT C; and the surface ocean and the intermediate and deep oceans, 100 GT C."

Notice that the oceans exchange ten times as much carbon with the atmosphere as humans produce (90GT vs. 8.6 GT). Exchange means regulation. And humans only add 1% as much CO2 to the atmosphere per year as already in it. If such a miniscule amount were as critical as propagandists claim, all life would have been destroyed long ago. Nature hasn't been sitting on a 1% knife edge for millions of years.

Reference:
   Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine


The Cost of Global Warming Alarmism
From Marc Morano, Senate Staffer
October 19, 2007

The Lieberman-Warner bill will burden American families with additional energy costs and significantly harm the United States economy...

CO2 cap-and-trade schemes were exposed by a recent CBO (Congressional Budget Office) study as creating massive wealth redistribution from the poor and working class to wealthier Americans. Further, according to a MIT study released earlier this year, cap-and-trade legislation introduced earlier in the Senate this year by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Senator Boxer (D-CA) would cost energy sector consumers an amount equal to $4,500 per American family of four. The same study found a bill sponsored by Senator Lieberman and Senator McCain (R-AZ) would cost consumers $3,500 per family of four. And a new EPA analysis shows the Lieberman - McCain bill would cost up to half a trillion dollars by 2030 and $1.3 trillion by 2050 - and that was based on assumptions designed to low-ball the number, begging the question of how high the real figure would be. MORE

[Note: That's just one congressional bill at the starting point. It doesn't begin to total the cost of removing carbon dioxide from the air, particularly since the underlying motive of the agitators is to reduce the population of the globe by 90%. GN]


External Links:
   Icecap - Scientists Criticizing
   World Climate Report - web site
   Railroaded Science - By Richard Lindzen
   Al Gore is Wrong - By Richard Lindzen
   Fraudulent Consensus - By James Inhofe
   CO2 Absorption at 15 µM - By Heinz Hug
   More Oceans Heating
   temperature graphs through ice ages
   Latest on Ice Core Measurements
   Jaworowski: critic of ice core measurements
   Heat in Earth's Interior
   Interview of Fred Singer
   Fred Singer's Web Site
   Temperature Measurements
   CO2 Science Org
   A look at the Numbers
   High Levels of CO2
   El Nino and CO2
   Political Criticism. May 24, 2006
   Social Control - Constance Cumbe
   Bio fuels Destroy Environments
   Historical Summary
   Raw Data on CO2 in Air
   Extremes in Past
   Solar energy as Cause
   Tilt in Earth's Orbit
   Oceans Heating at Antarctica
   Deep Ocean Heat
   Antarctica Grounding Line
   CO2 Criticisms—Segalstad
   Termodynamics - PDF — Gerlich and Tscheuschner
   New Oceanograhy Study — by Anthoni


Climate Change: The carbon creates the droughts, and the oxygen creates the floods. Since it does two things, they call it CO2. If you don't believe that, it's because you promote big oil and big tobacco, and you refuse to look at the science of the subject. The IPCC said so; and it's peer reviewed science.