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Gary Novak Independent Scientist Science Home Global Warming: Global Warming Main Page Crunching the Numbers Absorption Spectra Explanations Oceans not Rising Future Ice Age Acid in the Oceans Context The Cause of Ice Ages and Present Climate Fake DataThe Hockey Stick Graph External Link, pdf, 180K: |
My Description of Global Warming Oceans control the climate, not greenhouse gasses. Context
The IPCC Fraud The claimed reference for global warming alarmists is the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The document is said to be unquestionable, peer reviewed science. It is nothing resembling science. Science has the purpose of removing subjective influences from the study of nature through objective measurements of evidence which are unquestionable. Everything in the IPCC reports is arguable. The material is not presented as evidence. It is presented with the style of a tutorial for ten-year-olds combined with gnostic authoritarianism (Just trust us, you wouldn't understand.) while lacking the coherence and rationality that a description of a subject would have. The subject matter consists of patches of irrelevant trivia without relationships between points or to a conclusion. In other words, it is fakery and fraud designed for no other purpose than muddling a subject and contriving conclusions out of thin air.
Oceans Oceans control the climate. Oceans store massive amounts of heat and release it into the atmosphere in highly varied and unpredictable ways. In proportion to temperature, oceans release water vapor and carbon dioxide. Heat enters the oceans from sunshine. Energy from the sun accumulates in the oceans, because it penetrates some distance, and water has a high heat capacity for holding the energy. (Warmist scientists got caught off guard ignoring oceans, so they have recently been dabbling around in the subject of oceans. They have been preposterously pretending that carbon dioxide in the air is the only thing heating the oceans and that heat can be traced from atmosphere to oceans and back.) Since the late seventies, oceans have been releasing noticeable amounts of heat and water vapor creating a recognizable effect called global warming. At least, the Pacific Ocean has been doing so. The warmer air moving off the Pacific Ocean has been heating the western United States including Alaska and increasing precipitation in those areas. The climate of the western U.S., up to about the corn belt, is influenced primarily by the Pacific Ocean. At about the corn belt, the climate is influenced primarily by air from the Gulf of Mexico, which moves northward over Oklahoma and Arkansas, often combining with northern air over Iowa and Minnesota, before moving eastward carrying large amounts of precipitation with it. The northern plains of the U.S., where I live, is usually arid cow country being characterized by grasslands and wheat. During the 80s and 90s, the area started looking like the corn belt due to increased precipitation originating largely from a warmed up Pacific Ocean. By 1998, droughts began to occur in the area, as the Pacific Ocean cooled back down, and Pacific air got drier. See Ocean Charts and Temperatures (external pdf, 180K) But it wasn't as simple as ocean temperature changing. At the same time, Artic ice started melting in massive quantities. It means warm water started to flow over the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia causing Arctic ice to melt. You would think any scientist would know that it was Pacific Ocean water that caused Arctic ice to melt. But not so. The story which the public gets is that warm air with increased wind swept over the Arctic ice and melted it, as if there were no such thing as oceans, and humans heating the atmosphere were the only cause of change in the climate. And all of that caused by a 0.2°C temperature increase caused by humans and amplified to 0.6°C by secondary evaporation. Melting ice in the Arctic created some real cold air up there which has been coming down in sporadic intervals and creating severe winter storms in the northern U.S. and northern Europe. But oceans around the Antarctic have apparently stayed warm and are melting ice over oceans in addition to heating the Western Peninsula which juts out into the ocean. So frauds in science and the media focus on the melting ocean ice and warming Western Peninsula claiming that the Antarctic is melting and oceans are rising due to humans putting carbon dioxide in the air. Ice melting over water does not cause sea level to rise. While warm ocean water is slightly heating a small area of the Antarctic, it is also causing a lot more snow to fall over the rest of the Antarctic. Increased snowfall over the largest part of the Antarctic is reducing ocean level rise to almost nothing. Ice Ages Cyclic ice ages have been the determining factor of large-scale climate effects over the past one million years. Ice ages have been repeating at extremely precise intervals of 100 thousand years. About 80% of the time, mile thick ice sheets cover much of the northern hemisphere; and about 20% of the time, the ice melts, and everything warms up. The sea level drops about 400 feet (140 meters) while ice accumulates over land. The latest warm-up has been occurring for about 20 thousand years, and the next ice age is scheduled to begin sometime in the next thousand years. The graph below shows how surface temperatures (proxied from ocean temperatures) have been fluctuating over the past 800 thousand years (8 ice ages).
The large cycles are ice ages. Now is on the right side. The present temperature is near the usual peak before the next ice age begins. The smaller peaks are major events occurring within ice age cycles. The most likely explanation for the smaller peaks is that the intensity of the sun's energy varies for various reasons including cyclic changes in the earth's orbit. It is unlikely that variations in solar energy cause the large cycles of ice ages, because they have only been occurring for one million years. The sun would not be expected to undergo such dramatic change in only a million years. Therefore, I theorize that ice ages are caused by heat originating within the earth which causes the ocean temperatures to increase. The heat could get into the earth from electromagnetic energy responding to changes in the solar system interacting with the earth's orbit. Or the heat could originate from a hot spot in the fluid core of the earth rotating near the surface and heating the oceans. Recent events have caused me to conclude that geothermal heat moves continually upward and heats the oceans, but complex currents and layers in the oceans cause sporadic results on the surface. At any rate, the graph above clearly shows that the temperature of the oceans increases at the beginning of each ice age. Increased ocean temperature means increased precipitation. Therefore, it is clear that ice ages begin with increased precipitation. Increased precipitation would cause more snow to fall in northern areas, which would reflect away sunshine and result in a cool-down. yet frauds in science insist that an ice age consists of dry, cold conditions, and the cold precedes the ice age rather than follows it. As every element of this subject and numerous other subjects show, science is little more than fraud nowdays. There is no justification in spending $45 trillion dollars to remove carbon dioxide from the air without admitting that the assumed science involved is fraud. Notice the fraudulent science in the claim that water vapor is not the cause of global warming, even though it is much more of a greenhouse gas than CO2, because water vapor is stable. Nothing could be more of a contempt for truth than claiming water vapor is stable. The warming oceans shown on the above graph show that water vapor constantly changes. Then the frauds claim that CO2 is only responsible for a 0.2°C temperature increase, but it caused more water to vaporize increasing the total global warming to 0.6°C. If a 0.2°C temperature increase caused more water to vaporize, then the constantly changing ocean temperature is not resulting in a stable level of water vapor.
There is no Valid Mechanism for Carbon Dioxide Causing Global Warming Carbon dioxide absorbs all radiation available to it in about 10 meters (Heinz Hug). Doubling the amount of CO2 in the air reduces the distance to 5 meters. Reducing the distance is not increasing the heat. Since this fact is so undeniable, fakes in science contrive an explanation where high in the atmosphere some of the CO2 molecules which are in an unusual energy state do not absorb all radiation available to them, so doubling the amount of CO2 in the air would cause more radiation to be absorbed by those CO2 molecules. This mechanism is so high in the atmosphere and so miniscule that it does not constitute a legitimate cause for global warming. I explain this on the web page titled Fake Mechanism.
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