| Oceans are heating, |
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| not the atmosphere |
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| Global Warming | ||||||
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| not caused by carbon dioxide | ||||||
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Gary Novak Independent Scientist Science Home Global Warming: Global Warming Crunching the Numbers Absorption Spectra Details Explained Oceans not Rising Future Ice Age Acid in the Oceans Context |
Why Oceans are not Rising
Cool-Down Over Land at Antarctica Ice which sits over oceans does not cause a change in sea level when it melts, because the water is already supporting its weight. The only way sea level can rise is when ice which was over land moves into the oceans. Ice which is accumulating on land is lowering the sea level, because it is coming out of the oceans and not flowing back in. The Public Version Vs. the Science Version Global warming propagandists have recently been saying that ocean levels are expected to rise 20 feet in the future. But measurements by tide gauge indicate oceans are rising only 1.8mm per year, which is only 7 inches per century, and ice accumulating over Antarctica will cause sea levels to decrease in the near future. There are two positions propagandists take on every issue: One, there is the public impression. In this case, ice melting everywhere is supposed to tell the public that ocean levels are rising. Two, there is the technical rationalization. Here, the technical rationalization is based upon misrepresented science. Antarctica Study Scientific studies show ice accumulating over land on Antarctica and Greenland. Propagandists state the opposite based upon misrepresentation of those studies. The full articles are not available on the internet, but there is enough information to evaluate the claims. The first study was published in Science on May 19 and June 24, 2005. Satellite radar was used to show thickening of ice over eastern Antarctica, with some thinning over western Antarctica, but a net increase, which means slight reducing effect upon ocean levels.
Greenland Study On October 20 and November 11, 2005 Science published a study showing the same thing on Greenland: satellite radar showed ice increasing on the interior of Greenland.
Gravimetric Measurements These results were contradicted by impression based on a new method of measurement by satellites using gravity sensors. In Science, March 2, 2006, a study showed Antarctica losing ice; and in Nature, September 21, 2006, it was reported that Greenland is losing ice. But these later studies describe total size of the ice sheet, which includes ice over the oceans. A reduction in area size only applies to ice over oceans, which does not cause oceans to rise; but this point was not clarified. The gravimetric measurements cannot determine if ice is thickening over land. In other words, gravimetric measurements only determine surface area, which could be done optically. But by using an esoteric method, the public can be misled on the meaning. Washington Post Article Based on Gravimetric Study A Washington Post article describing the gravimetric study of Antarctica said ocean levels would rise, because overland ice was shrinking, which is not what the study showed. In a similar way, it is now common for propagandists to claim ice is shrinking overland on Antarctica. This standard has to be called fraud. Trickery in the way the study was described resulted in false assumptions, and the scientists promoted the false assumptions instead of correcting them. The scientists who did the gravimetric study kept saying ice was shrinking without clarifying that it was ice over water that was shrinking. Then journalists described ice over land as shrinking, while the study had no ability to determine if ice over land was shrinking. The end result is that the gravimetric study is used as the basis for propagandists to falsely claim that ice over land is melting at Antarctica, which will supposedly result in oceans rising. The Washington Post article on the gravimetric study goes so far as to say ice on Antarctica is moving more rapidly toward the oceans as the supposed mechanism for rising ocean levels, since there is no direct melting of ice at Antarctica. The gravimetric study had no ability to determine whether ice was moving. All it could do is locate the boundaries around the ice to determine surface area. Furthermore, if ice were moving more rapidly on Antarctica, the cause would have to be increased weight pushing it faster, while increased weight would require ice to be increasing, not decreasing. Small Effects on Greenland On Greenland, it is said glaciers are moving more rapidly toward the sea due to melt-water lubricating them. But there has been no quantitative determination of the extent to which it is occurring. The anecdotal descriptions appear to apply to coastal areas rather than interior conditions. There does not appear to be much quantitative significance in terms of ocean levels rising, because Greenland is small compared to Antarctica, and only in limited areas is ice moving into the oceans, while satellite radar measurements show ice thickening over land on Greenland. Increased Precipitation Causes Ice to Increase Over Land Ice is increasing over land on Antarctica and Greenland, because precipitation is increasing due to warmer oceans which evaporate more rapidly. This in itself would cause ocean levels to fall. But ocean levels have been slightly rising due to glaciers melting over land. This includes ice falling more rapidly from the sides of Greenland due to warmer ocean water nearby. The amount of ice that can fall off land and into the oceans cannot produce much rise in ocean levels before increasing ice over land causes ocean levels to fall. Highest Ocean Levels It is said that before the last ice age (100,000 years ago), oceans were 20 ft higher than now. This does not mean that the ocean level will be the same height before the upcoming ice age. There is no mechanism which would set the ocean level at any particular height before an ice age. All indications are that the ocean level has peaked and will not get much higher before the next ice age. The reason why the ocean level can be 20 ft lower this time around is because the height is determined by the amount of ice over Antarctica and Greenland. This would be highly variable and would not be the same each cycle. Apparently, more ice has accumulated over Antarctica and Greenland this time around than last time. References: 1. Ice Thickening over Antarctica: Science Abstract: 2. News Story on Same: 3. Ice Thickening over Greenland: Science Abstract: 4. News Story on Same: 5. Gravimetric Measurement over Antarctica. Authors' News Release: 6. Washington Post Article on Same: Global Warming Main Page External Links: Gore Wrong about Antarctica Grounding Line Deep Ocean Heat Scientific Review by CO2 Science Org — indicates 1.5 inches per century Studies by Morner |
